Sat, May 23
Race 9
KeertanaL250k
Post: 4:56 · 1.50m · Turf · $250K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #3 AYRA STARK (EP, QSP 7)
- #8 VENENCIA (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 3, 1, 4, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$23.11
mean $24.85
Expected ROI
-86.1%
net $-5.16
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [3, 1, 4, 5] — hits 3.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $23 (mean $25; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
3
B Contenders
1, 4, 5
C Value-edge longshots
8, 7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.2% | $19.95 | -88% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 5.7% | $27.65 | -81% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 6.4% | $26.79 | -85% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 6.2% | $26.52 | -85% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 10.0% | $27.65 | -81% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AEPAYRA STARK | 1.8-1 | 1.5-1 | 93.4 | 17% | 48% | ▼-43% |
| 1 | BSSULTANA | 3.0-1 | 2.8-1 | 91.0 | 14% | 42% | ▼-21% |
| 4 | BSGOLDEN SUNSHINE | 4.0-1 | 4.3-1 | 92.4 | 13% | 40% | ▼-11% |
| 5 | BSWAY TO BE MARIE | 6.0-1 | 6.0-1 | 91.0 | 13% | 39% | ·+2% |
| 2 | SAWESOMESAUCE | 8.0-1 | 5.8-1 | 89.3 | 12% | 37% | ▲+9% |
| 8 | CEPVENENCIA | 12-1 | 14-1 | 89.2 | 12% | 35% | ▲+16% |
| 6 | SVIRGIN COLADA | 15-1 | 20-1 | 87.0 | 10% | 31% | ▲+15% |
| 7 | CSQUEENS COMMAND | 20-1 | 27-1 | 86.5 | 9% | 28% | ▲+16% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Sat, May 23 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.