John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R9

PP 3

AYRA STARK

M '20 · COSMIC TRIGGER × DELFIA

Trainer: DE PAZ HORACIO · Jockey: ORTIZ JOSE L

Today's prediction

93.4

Speed fig

48.2%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +7.87
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +2.13
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.92
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.85
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.82

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.15
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate -0.12
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Max -0.10
  • Mean Speed Fig Career -0.08
  • BRIS Dist Pedigree -0.08

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-28 GP 1.50m Turf 2 0.3 101 92 Rail trip; gamely
2026-01-24 GP 1.50m Turf 2 1.8 85 92 Rail; pace; held 2nd
2025-12-20 TP 1.25m Dirt 2 0.5 87 89 2w;bid btw;dueld;bestd
2025-10-15 KEE 1.50m Turf 1 4.3 78 Ins;bid 2w1/4;drew off
2025-09-06 KD 1.31m Turf 8 7.5 91 92 Rated inside; faded
2025-08-16 CNL 1.19m Turf 1 3.3 92 83 Bmpd st;2-3p;drew clr
2025-07-11 CNL 1.13m Turf 3 3.5 83 89 3-4wd;work bw;wllng
2025-05-18 CD 1.13m Dirt 8 27.5 57 89 Ins;ask 9/16;faded 2nd
2024-11-01 *AR 1.37m Dirt 1 6.0
2024-10-12 *AR 1.12m Dirt 1 3.0