Sat, May 23
Race 8
Alw 25000s
Post: 4:25 · 6.5f · Dirt · $76K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersHot pace
8 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #5 TURN UP THE TREES (E, QSP 7)
- #9 SHOW TIME (E, QSP 6)
- #6 FIVE O' SOMEWHERE (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 STAR'S IMAGE (EP, QSP 6)
- #10 GET HER NUMBER (EP, QSP 5)
- #3 OTTO THE CONQUEROR (EP, QSP 5)
- #2 PINFIRE (EP, QSP 4)
- #11 LUNDBERG (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 9, 10, 3, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$122.11
mean $146.48
Expected ROI
-54.0%
net $-3.24
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [9, 10, 3, 5] — hits 1.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $122 (mean $146; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
9, 10
B Contenders
3, 5, 6
C Value-edge longshots
1, 7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.9% | $98.51 | -68% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.5% | $144.23 | -46% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.7% | $102.29 | -65% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 5.2% | $149.33 | -58% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 6.7% | $117.85 | -61% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AESHOW TIME | 8.0-1 | 5.6-1 | 87.8 | 14% | 39% | ▲+11% |
| 10 | AEPGET HER NUMBER | 2.5-1 | 2.1-1 | 89.8 | 14% | 39% | ▼-34% |
| 3 | BEPOTTO THE CONQUEROR | 5.0-1 | 4.8-1 | 87.6 | 12% | 34% | ▼-9% |
| 5 | BETURN UP THE TREES | 8.0-1 | 5.9-1 | 84.9 | 11% | 32% | ·+4% |
| 6 | BEPFIVE O' SOMEWHERE | 12-1 | 7.5-1 | 86.1 | 10% | 30% | ▲+11% |
| 2 | EPPINFIRE | 3.5-1 | 3.3-1 | 84.2 | 9% | 28% | ▼-29% |
| 4 | EPSTAR'S IMAGE | 6.0-1 | 5.2-1 | 82.1 | 9% | 28% | ▼-9% |
| 11 | EPLUNDBERG | 15-1 | 19-1 | 80.8 | 6% | 19% | ·+3% |
| 1 | CPFREE ADVICE | 30-1 | 40-1 | 80.2 | 6% | 19% | ▲+11% |
| 7 | CSFURIOUS ANGER | 30-1 | 35-1 | 78.2 | 5% | 16% | ▲+8% |
| 8 | PMIACOMET | 30-1 | 28-1 | 75.8 | 5% | 16% | ▲+7% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Sat, May 23 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.