Sat, May 23
Race 7
Md 20000
Post: 3:53 · 6f · Dirt · $48K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #6 EXODUS (E, QSP 6)
- #4 JACK CHARLES (E, QSP 6)
- #7 HIGHWAY PATROL (E, QSP 5)
- #2 CHATTERFIELD (E, QSP 3)
- #10 J DAVID (EP, QSP 3)
- #5 CARDINAL UNION (E, QSP 2)
3 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 6, 4, 7, 11
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$53.00
mean $72.08
Expected ROI
-66.0%
net $-3.96
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [6, 4, 7, 11] — hits 2.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $53 (mean $72; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6
B Contenders
4, 7, 11
C Value-edge longshots
1
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.1% | $54.99 | -68% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 3.6% | $54.99 | -61% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 5.3% | $54.99 | -63% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.0% | $42.66 | -82% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 9.3% | $69.52 | -53% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AEEXODUS | 2.0-1 | 1.3-1 | 73.2 | 18% | 49% | ▼-36% |
| 4 | BEJACK CHARLES | 4.5-1 | 3.0-1 | 72.7 | 15% | 42% | ·-5% |
| 7 | BEHIGHWAY PATROL | 15-1 | 13-1 | 71.5 | 12% | 37% | ▲+21% |
| 11 | BSPROPS | 12-1 | 16-1 | 70.4 | 10% | 30% | ▲+10% |
| 9 | PGRAB THE SPARK | 3.5-1 | 3.8-1 | 69.4 | 9% | 28% | ▼-28% |
| 3 | EQUILIBRIUM | 10-1 | 11-1 | 70.6 | 9% | 26% | ·+3% |
| 5 | ECARDINAL UNION | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 69.9 | 8% | 26% | ·-2% |
| 1 | CAGAINST THE TIME | 30-1 | 43-1 | 69.1 | 7% | 23% | ▲+15% |
| 2 | ECHATTERFIELD | 20-1 | 41-1 | 63.5 | 6% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 10 | EPJ DAVID | 30-1 | 60-1 | 58.1 | 4% | 12% | ·+3% |
| 8 | BIG FUZZ | 12-1 | 20-1 | 52.4 | 3% | 9% | ▼-10% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Sat, May 23 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.