Fri, May 22
Race 4
Clm 16000b
Post: 2:13 · 6f · Dirt · $37K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #7 LIVEHAPPY (E, QSP 8)
- #2 YOU AIN'T POPPN (EP, QSP 7)
- #1 COASTAL BREEZE (EP, QSP 6)
- #3 DR FENN (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 WACO (EP, QSP 4)
- #6 MI DINERO (EP, QSP 0)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 2, 1, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
6.6%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$28.56
mean $28.14
Expected ROI
-68.9%
net $-4.13
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [2, 1, 4] — hits 6.6% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $29 (mean $28; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
2
B Contenders
1, 4, 7
C Value-edge longshots
8, 3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 7.6% | $16.55 | -79% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 12.6% | $17.74 | -74% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 12.8% | $17.74 | -75% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 13.8% | $18.92 | -78% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 20.4% | $19.36 | -72% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEPYOU AIN'T POPPN | 1.2-1 | 0.7-1 | ↓0.8-1 | 83.4 | 27% | 68% | ▼-32% |
| 1 | BEPCOASTAL BREEZE | 3.0-1 | 3.0-1 | ↑5.0-1 | 76.2 | 14% | 45% | ·+2% |
| 4 | BEPWACO | 15-1 | 12-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 75.2 | 14% | 44% | ▲+8% |
| 7 | BELIVEHAPPY | 4.5-1 | 4.9-1 | ·4.5-1 | 75.7 | 14% | 44% | ·-3% |
| 6 | EPMI DINERO | 8.0-1 | 8.0-1 | ·7.0-1 | 75.2 | 12% | 37% | ▲+5% |
| 8 | CPSMOLS | 12-1 | 15-1 | ↑22-1 | 70.6 | 10% | 33% | ▲+22% |
| 3 | CEPDR FENN | 20-1 | 27-1 | ↓15-1 | 71.5 | 9% | 29% | ▲+13% |
| 5 | SCREPSPINNING PRIDE | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Fri, May 22 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.