Fri, May 22
Race 3
Clm 20000
Post: 1:43 · 1m · Dirt · $60K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #7 BOURBON'S FAULT (EP, QSP 8)
- #2 GREAT ESCAPE (EP, QSP 7)
- #1 ARMY OFFICER (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 BLOODLINE (EP, QSP 3)
- #5 TWIRLING TROILLET (E, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 1, 7, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
7.6%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$63.28
mean $67.87
Expected ROI
-14.4%
net $-0.86
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 7, 3] — hits 7.6% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $63 (mean $68; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
7, 3, 2
C Value-edge longshots
4, 6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 7.4% | $17.93 | -66% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 13.7% | $27.96 | -54% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 13.3% | $27.96 | -55% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 13.5% | $19.61 | -65% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 20.3% | $38.49 | -44% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEPARMY OFFICER | 3.0-1 | 2.6-1 | 84.2 | 25% | 64% | ·+0% |
| 7 | BEPBOURBON'S FAULT | 3.5-1 | 4.1-1 | 82.0 | 18% | 52% | ▼-5% |
| 3 | BPC F V BULLET | 6.0-1 | 8.7-1 | 82.0 | 15% | 45% | ▲+9% |
| 2 | BEPGREAT ESCAPE | 2.0-1 | 2.1-1 | 81.9 | 14% | 42% | ▼-43% |
| 6 | CPTRES SOLES | 10-1 | 12-1 | 80.2 | 13% | 41% | ▲+18% |
| 4 | CEPBLOODLINE | 15-1 | 18-1 | 78.1 | 11% | 35% | ▲+19% |
| 5 | ETWIRLING TROILLET | 8.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 69.1 | 6% | 22% | ▼-7% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Fri, May 22 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.