Fri, May 22
Race 2
Md Sp Wt
Post: 1:14 · 5f · Turf · $120K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersUnprojectable
6 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
6 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 8, 4, 9
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$82.68
mean $92.29
Expected ROI
-46.1%
net $-2.76
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [8, 4, 9] — hits 3.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $83 (mean $92; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
8, 4
B Contenders
9, 1, 10
C Value-edge longshots
5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 3.5% | $15.95 | -81% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 7.0% | $22.67 | -76% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.0% | $27.13 | -80% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 13.3% | $30.52 | -59% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 11.2% | $29.95 | -73% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | APEXPRESS SUCCESS | 3.0-1 | 3.2-1 | 69.0 | 16% | 47% | ▼-17% |
| 4 | ASTORM DIVA | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 67.7 | 15% | 44% | ▲+16% |
| 9 | BESTARDOTOO | 20-1 | 41-1 | 68.5 | 15% | 44% | ▲+31% |
| 1 | BWASHTON | 6.0-1 | 10-1 | 67.9 | 15% | 43% | ▲+7% |
| 10 | BLET HER FLY | 10-1 | 19-1 | 67.6 | 14% | 42% | ▲+19% |
| 5 | CHIGH CLASS BROAD | 20-1 | 59-1 | 67.4 | 14% | 41% | ▲+29% |
| 3 | BEE CRAZY | 6.0-1 | 9.5-1 | 66.4 | 13% | 39% | ·+3% |
| 2 | SCRESILVER MAGIC | 4.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | SCRGEE TEE | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | SCRBIT TIPSY | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | SCRESHINING MOMENT | 2.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Fri, May 22 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.