John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 1

ARMY OFFICER

G '21 · NOT THIS TIME × WORTH A CHANCE MO

Trainer: MAKER MICHAEL J · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

84.2

Speed fig

64.1%

In-the-money

Last 11 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +4.28
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.00
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.76
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.66
  • Today Track Code +0.37

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Finish Pos Last 5 -0.27
  • Class Par Trend -0.22
  • Last Finish Pos -0.21
  • Num Career Starts -0.20
  • Is Surface Change From Last -0.15

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-10 CD 1.13m Turf 10 7.5 81 88 Prss 2w;bid;wkn btw1/8
2026-02-28 GP 1.06m Turf 10 9.3 82 92 Chased 4wd; faded
2026-01-24 GP 1.04m Dirt 9 7.3 84 92 Between 2nd; no rally
2025-10-16 KEE 1.06m Dirt 9 13.8 76 93 Bobble bit st;ins;tire
2025-09-10 KD 1m Turf 11 18.8 63 Close;3-4w;faltered
2025-08-08 ELP 1.06m Turf 1 1.3 92 91 Ins-2w;bold bid 4w3/16
2025-06-21 CD 1.06m Turf 3 1.3 85 92 2p upr;lng drv;gave in
2025-05-16 PIM 1m Turf 2 0.3 84 89 3wd;clear;left lead
2025-03-27 TP 1m Dirt 4 5.8 81 93 2w1st;4p upr;bid;hung
2024-09-08 KD 1m Turf 8 7.5 82 95 Inside; weakened
2024-08-02 SAR 1m Turf 7 3.5 81 93 2p in aim; wknd late