John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 7

BOURBON'S FAULT

G '21 · BLAME × MOON MEDAL

Trainer: MILLER PETER · Jockey: GEROUX FLORENT

Today's prediction

82.0

Speed fig

51.6%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.13
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.92
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.84
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.59
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.56

Pushing prediction down

  • Distance Change From Last -0.59
  • Today Post Position -0.18
  • Num Career Starts -0.15
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.13
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.11

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-02 OP 6f Dirt 7 5.0 78 92 Little impact str
2026-04-11 OP 6f Dirt 1 0.3 83 92 Btw3-4p; bid upr; held
2026-03-26 OP 6f Dirt 1 4.5 88 88 Bump st; 3-5p; bid 1/8
2026-02-14 OP 6f Dirt 7 9.8 78 88 Bump st; 4p; no impact
2025-11-08 CD 7f Dirt 6 5.0 82 90 Step slow;2wbtw;no bid
2025-10-16 KEE 6f Dirt 5 9.8 78 93 Ins;5p upr;left ld btw
2025-08-08 ELP 6.5f Dirt 5 8.5 83 95 2wd btwn; gave way
2025-07-14 ELP 6f Dirt 3 1.5 85 95 Bid str; prevailed shw
2025-06-15 CD 7.5f Dirt 3 1.5 90 96 Ins pair-2p;fought on
2025-05-17 CD 6.5f Dirt 2 0.1 88 91 Dueld outs wnnr;denied