Sun, May 17
Race 5
Clm 16000n2l
Post: 2:45 · 7f · Dirt · $36K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #8 GUARDIAN (EP, QSP 7)
- #2 A CAB ON THE ROCKS (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 AFTER PARTY (E, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 8, 4, 6, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
16.3%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$5.97
mean $7.90
Expected ROI
-78.6%
net $-4.71
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [8, 4, 6, 2] — hits 16.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $6 (mean $8; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
8
B Contenders
4, 6, 2
C Value-edge longshots
3, 7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 14.3% | $5.97 | -79% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 25.6% | $6.93 | -73% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 25.8% | $6.93 | -73% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 25.7% | $6.93 | -74% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 35.6% | $9.88 | -68% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | AEPGUARDIAN | 1.6-1 | 1.1-1 | 77.1 | 36% | 81% | ▼-17% |
| 4 | BSWAR MUNNY | 6.0-1 | 8.3-1 | 71.5 | 18% | 56% | ▲+20% |
| 6 | BEAFTER PARTY | 4.5-1 | 4.8-1 | 65.0 | 15% | 51% | ·+4% |
| 2 | BEPA CAB ON THE ROCKS | 12-1 | 13-1 | 68.8 | 14% | 47% | ▲+28% |
| 7 | CPDEWY'S DENALI | 15-1 | 26-1 | 65.1 | 9% | 34% | ▲+18% |
| 3 | CPSTEFAN'S TITLE | 30-1 | 45-1 | 58.9 | 8% | 31% | ▲+23% |
| 1 | SCRSMO HAIR SAM | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | SCREPLUCIUS VERUS | 2.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Sun, May 17 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.