Sun, May 17
Race 6
Clm 50000
Post: 3:18 · 1.06m · Turf · $86K purse · 8 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 8 of 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersHot pace
7 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #4 TAKEMETOTHEBEACH (E, QSP 8)
- #9 JILL JITTERBUG (EP, QSP 8)
- #3 LADY ORIENT (EP, QSP 6)
- #2 ALL ABOUT ME (EP, QSP 6)
- #1 GOODBETTERBEST (E, QSP 4)
- #6 COZY CURLIN KITTEN (EP, QSP 3)
- #8 GOATS ON A TREE (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 4, 8, 5, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
5.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$20.30
mean $30.33
Expected ROI
-70.6%
net $-4.24
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [4, 8, 5, 3] — hits 5.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $20 (mean $30; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4, 8
B Contenders
5, 3, 1
C Value-edge longshots
9
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 6.3% | $20.30 | -79% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 10.3% | $30.12 | -66% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 11.0% | $20.30 | -72% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 15.5% | $30.55 | -67% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 15.4% | $40.81 | -59% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AETAKEMETOTHEBEACH | 4.5-1 | 4.1-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 84.8 | 20% | 55% | ▼-30% |
| 8 | AEPGOATS ON A TREE | 1.2-1 | 0.9-1 | ↑2.0-1 | 83.4 | 18% | 52% | ▼-33% |
| 5 | BSCLASSY'N CONNECTED | 3.5-1 | 3.5-1 | ·4.0-1 | 83.6 | 16% | 47% | ·-4% |
| 3 | BEPLADY ORIENT | 15-1 | 16-1 | ↓8.0-1 | 81.2 | 14% | 42% | ▲+13% |
| 1 | BEGOODBETTERBEST | 8.0-1 | 8.3-1 | ·8.0-1 | 81.3 | 13% | 39% | ▲+11% |
| 6 | EPCOZY CURLIN KITTEN | 6.0-1 | 7.1-1 | ·6.0-1 | 80.4 | 12% | 37% | ·+0% |
| 9 | CEPJILL JITTERBUG | 15-1 | 21-1 | ↑29-1 | 73.5 | 6% | 20% | ▲+12% |
| 2 | EPALL ABOUT ME | 30-1 | 61-1 | ·35-1 | 61.9 | 3% | 9% | ·+2% |
| 7 | SCRSFREAK CITY | 50-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Sun, May 17 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.