Sun, May 17
Race 4
Alw 127000n1x
Post: 2:13 · 1.06m · Dirt · $127K purse · 5 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 5 of 5 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
5 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #1 CLAIRITA (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 BE THE LIGHT (E, QSP 5)
- #3 GO TO GIRL (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
Field too small for a trifecta
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EPCLAIRITA | 1.6-1 | 1.1-1 | ·1.4-1 | 88.2 | 28% | 73% | ▼-27% |
| 5 | EBE THE LIGHT | 4.0-1 | 3.9-1 | ↓1.5-1 | 85.3 | 22% | 64% | ▼-36% |
| 6 | PMARKET CHILL | 5.0-1 | 5.8-1 | ↑7.0-1 | 81.8 | 18% | 56% | ▲+24% |
| 2 | PANSWERED PRAYERS | 3.0-1 | 3.1-1 | ↑5.0-1 | 83.9 | 17% | 55% | ▲+12% |
| 3 | EPGO TO GIRL | 15-1 | 16-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 81.9 | 16% | 52% | ▲+15% |
| 4 | SCRPSO LIKE SILK | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | SCREPTETIAROA | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Sun, May 17 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.