Sat, May 16
Race 4
OClm 125000n1x
Post: 7:26 · 1.06m · Turf · $127K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #9 SIX O CLOCK (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 SHARONS PHAROAH (EP, QSP 5)
- #1 DA PRINCE IS RIGHT (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 4, 10, 3, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$80.07
mean $122.20
Expected ROI
-65.0%
net $-3.90
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [4, 10, 3, 5] — hits 1.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $80 (mean $122; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
4
B Contenders
10, 3, 5
C Value-edge longshots
2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.8% | $80.07 | -76% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 2.4% | $134.49 | -57% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.2% | $87.90 | -63% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.2% | $80.07 | -71% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 5.1% | $97.73 | -71% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AEPSHARONS PHAROAH | 4.0-1 | 3.6-1 | 84.9 | 14% | 41% | ▼-10% |
| 10 | BPDOCTRINE | 6.0-1 | 6.2-1 | 84.4 | 12% | 35% | ·-2% |
| 3 | BPDR. AGNE | 3.5-1 | 4.0-1 | 83.9 | 11% | 33% | ▼-24% |
| 5 | BSBRAVE FORCE | 12-1 | 12-1 | 83.7 | 11% | 33% | ▲+13% |
| 7 | PCHAMBERSVILLE | 5.0-1 | 5.2-1 | 82.4 | 10% | 30% | ▼-12% |
| 8 | PPATROL SQUAD SIX | 6.0-1 | 7.4-1 | 83.3 | 10% | 30% | ▼-7% |
| 6 | PWINTER HOLIDAY | 8.0-1 | 7.2-1 | 81.3 | 9% | 29% | ·+1% |
| 2 | CPMISCHIEF RIDE | 20-1 | 26-1 | 79.0 | 8% | 25% | ▲+13% |
| 9 | EPSIX O CLOCK | 12-1 | 14-1 | 79.4 | 8% | 24% | ·+5% |
| 1 | EPDA PRINCE IS RIGHT | 10-1 | 14-1 | 76.8 | 6% | 20% | ·-3% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Sat, May 16 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.