Sat, May 16
Race 3
Clm 16000b
Post: 6:56 · 1.06m · Dirt · $37K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 FASTA LAVISTA BABY (EP, QSP 7)
- #6 COULDYOUBELOVED (EP, QSP 6)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 5, 3, 6, 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
10.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$12.85
mean $23.81
Expected ROI
-58.4%
net $-3.50
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [5, 3, 6, 1] — hits 10.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $13 (mean $24; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
5
B Contenders
3, 6, 1
C Value-edge longshots
2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 14.0% | $12.85 | -51% |
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 11.3% | $10.07 | -81% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 18.1% | $21.34 | -54% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 19.2% | $12.71 | -63% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 25.8% | $31.90 | -43% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ASWITS AND WAGERS | 3.5-1 | 3.0-1 | 75.4 | 26% | 68% | ▲+12% |
| 3 | BPLITTLE DIXIE | 2.5-1 | 2.9-1 | 71.4 | 20% | 59% | ▼-14% |
| 6 | BEPCOULDYOUBELOVED | 1.6-1 | 1.6-1 | 70.9 | 16% | 51% | ▼-47% |
| 1 | BSFOURFIFTYSEVEN | 12-1 | 11-1 | 66.2 | 14% | 46% | ▲+26% |
| 4 | PMINT DRIVEN | 4.5-1 | 6.9-1 | 67.7 | 12% | 40% | ▼-6% |
| 2 | CEPFASTA LAVISTA BABY | 15-1 | 18-1 | 65.2 | 11% | 36% | ▲+20% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Sat, May 16 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.