John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 5

BRAVE FORCE

G '23 · GUN RUNNER × LIGHT BLOW

Trainer: SISTERSON JACK · Jockey: CHEMINAUD VINCENT

Today's prediction

83.7

Speed fig

33.1%

In-the-money

Last 7 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.66
  • Today Track Code +0.55
  • BRIS Mud Pedigree +0.22
  • BRIS Dirt Pedigree +0.22
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.21

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.33
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.18
  • Field Early Speed Count -0.14
  • Last Finish Pos -0.14
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Max -0.13

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-21 TP 1.13m Dirt 6 15.5 82 97 Ins;3-4p2nd;imprvd btw
2026-02-28 TP 1m Dirt 1 1.3 81 85 4p2nd;rally;drove past
2026-01-17 TP 1.06m Dirt 3 0.5 79 84 3p;5p3/16;bid btw;oukk
2025-12-12 TP 6f Dirt 4 3.8 75 84 Off rail improvement
2025-11-01 CD 7f Dirt 5 13.3 67 84 Step slow/bmpd st;2-4p
2025-10-10 KEE 1.06m Dirt 5 28.5 65 82 Ins winner;no match1/4
2025-09-07 KD 6.5f Turf 6 9.0 73 80 Came out 8w; improved