John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 1

FOURFIFTYSEVEN

M '21 · ENTICED × HAT BOX

Trainer: BARRETT RODDINA A · Jockey: GUTIERREZ MARIO

Today's prediction

66.2

Speed fig

45.7%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +1.14
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.21
  • Today Track Code +0.20
  • Today Post Position +0.19
  • Trainer Meet Itm Rate +0.18

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -8.65
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.01
  • Distance Change From Last -0.74
  • Last Speed Fig -0.69
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.66

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-09 KEE 6f Dirt 7 27.3 42 85 Lagged;showed little
2026-03-18 TP 6.5f Dirt 5 8.0 67 78 3p; no factor
2026-02-25 TP 6f Dirt 2 2.3 78 78 Ins;rail rally;gaining
2026-02-12 TP 6f Dirt 6 6.8 74 81 Ins;trail turn;improvd
2025-12-21 TP 1.25m Dirt 8 12.5 70 88 Stutterd step/brush st
2025-11-22 CD 1.06m Dirt 6 12.3 70 81 3p;ins 1/4;shifted out
2025-10-22 IND 1m Turf 9 7.0 64 73 Stalked3p;faded1/4
2025-09-11 CD 1m Dirt 8 20.3 68 84 5-4p; no impact
2025-05-16 CD 1.06m Dirt 5 9.0 72 82 Ins;3p2nd;no factor
2025-03-12 TP 1m Dirt 4 9.5 74 89 4p into lane;bmpd;fade