John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R2

PP 9

HEADSPIN

F '23 · HARD SPUN × COLBY

Trainer: MOTT WILLIAM I · Jockey: ARRIETA FRANCISCO

Today's prediction

78.6

Speed fig

37.0%

In-the-money

Last 2 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.27
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.94
  • Today Track Code +0.52
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.42
  • Class Par Trend +0.24

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.85
  • Field Avg Quirin -0.62
  • Today Post Position -0.46
  • Field Early Speed Count -0.16
  • Today Field Size -0.15

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-16 KEE 5.5f Turf 4 4.0 76 85 Brsh gt;4p;6p upr;mild
2026-03-14 GP 5f Dirt 4 1.5 84 80 Bump after start; 3wd