John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R2

PP 5

WINNING MATTERS

F '23 · GAME WINNER × MOON OVER MATTER

Trainer: STEWART DALLAS · Jockey: HERNANDEZ B J JR

Today's prediction

71.0

Speed fig

22.8%

In-the-money

Last 4 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last +0.38
  • Class Par Trend +0.32
  • Last Speed Fig +0.31
  • Distance Change From Last +0.27
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.23

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.99
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.25
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.79
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.63
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.49

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-13 FG 6f Dirt 2 0.1 77 87 Press 3w;dueled;game
2026-01-17 FG 6f Dirt 12 27.3 44 86 Bmpst; trailed 7/16
2025-12-12 OP 6f Dirt 8 15.5 59 84 Traffic; checked 1/4
2025-11-16 CD 5.5f Dirt 2 0.8 83 81 2w;outmvd;rally;denied