John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 1

CHAPARRITA

M '20 · MALIBU MOON × MUSICAL LUTE

Trainer: BROUSSARD JERVON · Jockey: MORALES EDGAR

Today's prediction

74.0

Speed fig

32.5%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Last Speed Fig +0.52
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.34
  • Today Post Position +0.27
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.24
  • Today Track Code +0.20

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.23
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.72
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.69
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.36
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.26

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-17 EVD 5.5f Dirt 1 5.3 81 78 Pulled away; best
2026-03-05 FG 6f Dirt 1 2.8 78 76 Stalk inside;drew away
2026-02-12 FG 6f Dirt 4 7.3 60 76 Stalk4w; back; imprvd
2026-01-25 FG 6f Dirt 6 21.0 49 79 Mid pack; tired
2026-01-10 FG 6f Dirt 4 6.5 69 83 Track3w; wknd
2025-12-12 FG 5f Turf 7 6.8 59 76 Slow st; trailed most
2025-09-19 RP 6.5f Dirt 6 16.0 54 81 2 wide turn; no threat
2025-09-06 LAD 1.04m Dirt 5 14.5 62 78 5-w 2nd; empty
2025-08-20 LAD 5.5f Dirt 3 5.5 67 82 Evenly; along for show
2025-08-06 LAD 5f Turf 2 3.0 76 78 Rail bid1/4;chased on