Fri, May 15
Race 8
OClm 100000b
Post: 4:22 · 1.06m · Dirt · $141K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #1 RUNNING AWAY (EP, QSP 8)
- #6 PEIGNOIR (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 5, 1, 6, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
8.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$13.35
mean $23.86
Expected ROI
-65.3%
net $-3.92
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [5, 1, 6, 7] — hits 8.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $13 (mean $24; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
5
B Contenders
1, 6, 7
C Value-edge longshots
3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 9.6% | $10.08 | -83% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 11.7% | $13.35 | -59% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 15.6% | $27.88 | -57% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 16.6% | $13.35 | -73% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 22.5% | $31.63 | -47% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | APYES IT TIZ | 3.5-1 | 3.1-1 | 89.8 | 23% | 62% | ▲+5% |
| 1 | BEPRUNNING AWAY | 1.8-1 | 1.6-1 | 89.4 | 20% | 57% | ▼-34% |
| 6 | BEPPEIGNOIR | 2.5-1 | 2.5-1 | 88.6 | 18% | 53% | ▼-20% |
| 7 | BPMISS AUTHENTIC | 8.0-1 | 8.5-1 | 85.4 | 15% | 47% | ▲+19% |
| 4 | PCHILLED | 5.0-1 | 7.4-1 | 87.6 | 14% | 44% | ·+1% |
| 3 | CSIN JUST MY HEELS | 12-1 | 17-1 | 81.7 | 12% | 38% | ▲+18% |
| 2 | SCRECAT'S CAVE | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Fri, May 15 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.