John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 4

RISK MANAGER

H '18 · LOOKIN AT LUCKY × KATURA

Trainer: MAKER MICHAEL J · Jockey: MACHADO LUAN

Today's prediction

83.5

Speed fig

27.2%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.72
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.12
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.67
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.66
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.49

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.40
  • Last Finish Pos -0.17
  • Num Career Starts -0.14
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 -0.13
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.11

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-06 FG 1.06m Turf 7 7.3 82 88 2-3w;asked 4w;weakened
2026-02-07 FG 1.06m Turf 5 1.0 85 88 Angld 5w;traffic late
2026-01-10 GP 1.06m Turf 4 2.3 84 87 Ins;came5w; late rally
2025-12-06 GP 2m Turf 5 10.0 86 93 3wd bid; empty
2025-11-15 CD 1.06m Turf 6 2.5 86 77 Step slw;3w upr;bltdly
2025-10-18 BAQ 1.06m Turf 1 0.5 94 82 7w uppr;up final jumps
2025-09-06 KD 1.31m Turf 1 0.3 92 91 4-5w far turn;all out
2025-08-01 ELP 1.06m Turf 1 5.3 92 83 2p;dream split;kck clr
2025-06-27 CD 1.06m Turf 2 5.5 82 88 Btwn2-4p;1pace stretch
2025-05-12 IND 1m Turf 2 0.5 81 82 Awk;3p1/4;rally;missed