Sun, May 10
Race 4
Clm 30000n2l
Post: 2:14 · 6.5f · Dirt · $62K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #6 FROM SCRATCH (E, QSP 6)
- #1 LOVELY WORDS (E, QSP 6)
- #2 MENKAURE (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 MERRY MADISON (EP, QSP 3)
- #8 BAMTWENTYKLATER (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 4, 6, 2, 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
5.3%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$49.65
mean $81.80
Expected ROI
-27.8%
net $-1.67
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [4, 6, 2, 1] — hits 5.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $50 (mean $82; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
4, 6
B Contenders
2, 1, 8
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 5.7% | $39.56 | -62% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 9.6% | $55.70 | -33% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 10.7% | $49.65 | -42% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 14.9% | $85.91 | -26% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 19.7% | $67.84 | -36% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AEPMERRY MADISON | 8.0-1 | 6.8-1 | ↓4.5-1 | 80.4 | 19% | 53% | ▲+7% |
| 6 | AEFROM SCRATCH | 2.5-1 | 2.2-1 | ↓1.8-1 | 77.6 | 18% | 52% | ▼-39% |
| 2 | BEPMENKAURE | 6.0-1 | 6.6-1 | ↓4.0-1 | 76.2 | 15% | 45% | ▼-6% |
| 1 | BELOVELY WORDS | 6.0-1 | 7.1-1 | ↑10-1 | 76.7 | 15% | 44% | ▲+21% |
| 8 | BEPBAMTWENTYKLATER | 3.5-1 | 4.0-1 | ↑4.5-1 | 74.3 | 13% | 40% | ▼-6% |
| 5 | PSCRIBBLE | 4.5-1 | 5.9-1 | ↑7.0-1 | 75.7 | 13% | 39% | ▲+7% |
| 3 | PCALIFORNIA SMOKE | 30-1 | 39-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 69.8 | 8% | 27% | ▼-16% |
| 7 | SCREDOLCE VINO | 5.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Sun, May 10 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.