Sat, May 2
Race 6
KnicksGoL200k
Post: 1:53 · 1m · Dirt · $200K purse · 9 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 9 of 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 DRAGOON GUARD (E, QSP 8)
- #5 PRINCE OF POWER (E, QSP 8)
- #6 TOUR PLAYER (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 2, 4, 6, 10
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$39.87
mean $37.71
Expected ROI
-86.0%
net $-5.16
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [2, 4, 6, 10] — hits 2.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $40 (mean $38; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
2, 4
B Contenders
6, 10, 11
C Value-edge longshots
5, 7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 2.3% | $34.72 | -87% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.3% | $41.97 | -84% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 4.3% | $39.87 | -85% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 6.5% | $50.74 | -80% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 8.2% | $48.19 | -83% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEDRAGOON GUARD | 3.0-1 | 2.5-1 | ·2.5-1 | 94.1 | 15% | 43% | ▼-30% |
| 4 | APBE YOU | 3.5-1 | 3.9-1 | ·3.5-1 | 93.8 | 14% | 40% | ▼-17% |
| 6 | BEPTOUR PLAYER | 4.0-1 | 4.2-1 | ·3.5-1 | 91.7 | 12% | 36% | ▼-21% |
| 10 | BPCAPITAL IDEA | 5.0-1 | 5.8-1 | ·4.5-1 | 90.6 | 12% | 35% | ▼-11% |
| 11 | BSMOONLIGHT | 8.0-1 | 7.9-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 90.5 | 11% | 33% | ·-3% |
| 9 | PSCOTLAND | 20-1 | 27-1 | ↓14-1 | 88.6 | 10% | 30% | ▲+13% |
| 7 | CPWILL TAKE IT | 8.0-1 | 9.3-1 | ↑16-1 | 88.6 | 9% | 29% | ▲+14% |
| 5 | CEPRINCE OF POWER | 30-1 | 45-1 | ·24-1 | 88.1 | 9% | 28% | ▲+17% |
| 3 | PBANJO CHRIS | 20-1 | 28-1 | ·18-1 | 88.8 | 8% | 26% | ▲+13% |
| 1 | SCRPBROTHA KENY | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | SCREBERNIN HOT | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.