Derby 2026
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PP 10

CAPITAL IDEA

G '21 · CLASSIC EMPIRE × REVER DE VOUS

Trainer: MOTT WILLIAM I · Jockey: ALVARADO JUNIOR

Today's prediction

88.4

Speed fig

23.2%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.2 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.05
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.12
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.90
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.79
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 +0.48

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.77
  • Last Speed Fig -0.15
  • BRIS Dist Pedigree -0.09
  • Speed Fig At Similar Distance Mean -0.06
  • BRIS Dirt Pedigree -0.06

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-28 GP 1.06m Dirt 2 0.8 96 99 Rail;bid3w; 2nd best
2026-02-15 TAM 7f Dirt 2 5.0 90 92 3p;bid1/4;late gain
2025-11-21 CD 1.06m Dirt 1 0.3 96 4p;2-3w;5p1/4;rally;up
2025-10-24 KEE 1.06m Dirt 3 2.5 91 3p;5p btw3/16;up show
2025-08-31 SAR 1m Dirt 1 0.5 98 93 3w uppr; up last jumps
2025-07-27 SAR 1m Dirt 1 2.8 94 93 Chased 2p; edged clr
2024-11-19 PRX 1.04m Dirt 6 15.8 75 91 Step slow; no factor
2024-09-02 MTH 1m Dirt 3 5.3 88 91 Inside; no winning bid
2024-04-12 AQU 1.13m Dirt 3 9.8 84 90 Chased 3-2w; weakened
2024-03-02 AQU 1m Dirt 5 9.3 88 97 7w upper; one paced