Sat, May 2
Race 5
TurfSprt-G2
Post: 1:12 · 5.5f · Turf · $600K purse · 10 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 10 of 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersHot pace
7 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #10 JOE SHIESTY (EP, QSP 8)
- #1 WENDELSSOHN (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 ITS BOURBON THIRTY (EP, QSP 4)
- #2 BEAR RIVER (E, QSP 4)
- #5 POSSIBLEMENTE (EP, QSP 3)
- #4 FULL DISCLOSURE (EP, QSP 3)
- #3 MY BOY PRINCE (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 9, 3, 7, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$22.32
mean $42.73
Expected ROI
-87.3%
net $-5.24
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [9, 3, 7, 8] — hits 1.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $22 (mean $43; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
9, 3
B Contenders
7, 8, 5
C Value-edge longshots
1, 6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 2.1% | $20.03 | -93% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.4% | $22.32 | -81% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.6% | $22.32 | -87% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 5.2% | $36.98 | -83% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 6.7% | $23.08 | -80% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | APLITIGATION | 3.0-1 | 2.8-1 | ·2.5-1 | 94.4 | 14% | 40% | ▼-33% |
| 3 | AEPMY BOY PRINCE | 2.5-1 | 2.2-1 | ·3.0-1 | 94.8 | 14% | 40% | ▼-24% |
| 7 | BSYELLOW CARD | 4.5-1 | 4.1-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 91.7 | 11% | 34% | ▼-51% |
| 8 | BPMONDOGETSBUCKETS | 8.0-1 | 8.0-1 | ↑12-1 | 90.7 | 10% | 31% | ▲+11% |
| 5 | BEPPOSSIBLEMENTE | 10-1 | 13-1 | ↑17-1 | 91.9 | 10% | 31% | ▲+17% |
| 10 | EPJOE SHIESTY | 6.0-1 | 6.7-1 | ·5.0-1 | 90.7 | 10% | 29% | ▼-13% |
| 6 | CEPITS BOURBON THIRTY | 15-1 | 17-1 | ·15-1 | 89.5 | 9% | 28% | ▲+12% |
| 1 | CEPWENDELSSOHN | 15-1 | 22-1 | ↑32-1 | 90.6 | 9% | 28% | ▲+20% |
| 2 | EBEAR RIVER | 30-1 | 47-1 | ·23-1 | 87.5 | 7% | 22% | ▲+11% |
| 4 | EPFULL DISCLOSURE | 30-1 | 51-1 | ·33-1 | 83.6 | 5% | 17% | ▲+10% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.