Sat, May 2
Race 1
Md Sp Wt
Post: 11:00 · 1.06m · Dirt · $120K purse · 8 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 8 of 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #7 TIME TO STRIKE (E, QSP 8)
- #3 SILENT WAY (E, QSP 5)
2 of 8 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 11, 8, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
6.6%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$18.64
mean $21.06
Expected ROI
-77.0%
net $-4.62
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [11, 8, 3] — hits 6.6% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $19 (mean $21; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
11
B Contenders
8, 3, 6
C Value-edge longshots
2, 4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 6.1% | $14.11 | -84% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 11.1% | $16.97 | -79% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 9.9% | $14.11 | -79% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 9.5% | $14.11 | -80% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 14.1% | $21.90 | -77% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | APPOWERSHIFT | 3.0-1 | 2.4-1 | ↓1.0-1 | 88.3 | 21% | 57% | ▼-43% |
| 8 | BPBOURBON DREAM | 5.0-1 | 4.2-1 | ·6.0-1 | 82.4 | 17% | 50% | ▲+13% |
| 3 | BESILENT WAY | 4.0-1 | 4.0-1 | ↓3.0-1 | 84.7 | 16% | 46% | ▼-17% |
| 6 | BPCROMWELL | 6.0-1 | 6.1-1 | ↓4.5-1 | 81.4 | 13% | 40% | ▼-6% |
| 2 | CSSTAKEHOLDER | 20-1 | 30-1 | ·21-1 | 78.2 | 10% | 32% | ▲+20% |
| 5 | GET THEM ROSES | 15-1 | 17-1 | ·13-1 | 77.4 | 9% | 30% | ▲+12% |
| 4 | CINGLEBOROUGH | 20-1 | 31-1 | ↑26-1 | 76.9 | 7% | 24% | ▲+15% |
| 7 | ETIME TO STRIKE | 20-1 | 34-1 | ·19-1 | 72.5 | 6% | 21% | ▲+8% |
| 1 | SCRSBHATIA | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | SCREPWINSTON AVE | 4.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | SCRMIDNIGHT PLAYBOY | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.