Wed, Apr 29
Race 4
Md 50000
Post: 2:16 · 1.06m · Turf · $67K purse · 15 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
15 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #4 TURBO LAUNCH (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 UNDERAPPRECIATED (EP, QSP 6)
- #6 ABBI FEDE (E, QSP 5)
- #7 FERAL (EP, QSP 5)
- #15 THE FED'S PLOT (EP, QSP 5)
- #2 POWER OF WILL (E, QSP 3)
4 of 15 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 6, 4, 10
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
0.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$120.91
mean $122.61
Expected ROI
-83.5%
net $-5.01
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [6, 4, 10] — hits 0.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $121 (mean $123; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6
B Contenders
4, 10, 7
C Value-edge longshots
11, 3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 0.8% | $78.29 | -85% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 1.4% | $101.87 | -78% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 1.4% | $101.87 | -78% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 1.5% | $84.63 | -85% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 2.2% | $101.87 | -83% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AEABBI FEDE | 3.0-1 | 2.9-1 | 79.5 | 13% | 36% | ▼-28% |
| 4 | BEPTURBO LAUNCH | 4.0-1 | 3.5-1 | 72.9 | 9% | 26% | ▼-25% |
| 10 | BPFLY GUY MICK | 12-1 | 12-1 | 74.6 | 8% | 25% | ▲+5% |
| 7 | BEPFERAL | 6.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 72.1 | 8% | 23% | ▼-13% |
| 11 | CSHOLYROOD | 30-1 | 42-1 | 72.4 | 7% | 21% | ▲+12% |
| 8 | PNEWMAN | 4.5-1 | 6.1-1 | 72.6 | 7% | 21% | ▼-26% |
| 15 | EPTHE FED'S PLOT | 12-1 | 14-1 | 69.6 | 6% | 18% | ·-1% |
| 12 | PBEARISTER | 15-1 | 21-1 | 71.4 | 6% | 18% | ·+2% |
| 3 | CMUSH CAREY | 30-1 | 40-1 | 70.8 | 6% | 18% | ▲+10% |
| 5 | EPUNDERAPPRECIATED | 8.0-1 | 14-1 | 70.1 | 6% | 18% | ▼-11% |
| 9 | NYTTIME STORY | 30-1 | 44-1 | 70.8 | 6% | 18% | ▲+9% |
| 1 | TRAVERSE CITY | 10-1 | 10-1 | 66.1 | 5% | 17% | ▼-7% |
| 2 | EPOWER OF WILL | 15-1 | 20-1 | 69.8 | 5% | 16% | ·+0% |
| 13 | UR BENJA | 15-1 | 36-1 | 68.2 | 4% | 13% | ·-3% |
| 14 | SAMBERSSOHN | 30-1 | 51-1 | 63.9 | 4% | 12% | ·+4% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Wed, Apr 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.