John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 5

UNDERAPPRECIATED

G '23 · THOUSAND WORDS × ZUZANNA

Trainer: ENNIS JOHN · Jockey: MORALES EDGAR

Today's prediction

70.1

Speed fig

17.7%

In-the-money

Last 6 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.30
  • Weight Change From Last +0.22
  • Num Career Starts +0.20
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.16
  • Distance Change From Last +0.14

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -4.11
  • Today Field Size -0.85
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.63
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.39
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.37

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-11 KEE 1.06m Turf 8 13.0 70 87 Ins;headed 1/4;falterd
2026-03-14 TP 1m Dirt 2 0.8 76 85 Repeld foe;caught late
2026-02-28 TP 1m Dirt 6 10.5 68 85 Stalk 3w;chased;faded
2025-12-04 TP 1m Dirt 3 0.3 78 80 3w; run outkicked
2025-10-18 KEE 1.06m Dirt 8 15.5 59 84 Bmpd btw;4-3p;faded2nd
2025-09-04 KD 1m Turf 6 11.5 63 76 2-4w turn; evened out