Wed, Apr 29
Race 3
Md Sp Wt
Post: 1:45 · 4.5f · Dirt · $120K purse · 12 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
12 runnersUnprojectable
12 of 12 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
12 of 12 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 11, 8, 7, 9
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
0.6%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$94.57
mean $188.92
Expected ROI
-82.4%
net $-4.95
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [11, 8, 7, 9] — hits 0.6% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $95 (mean $189; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
11, 8
B Contenders
7, 9, 1
C Value-edge longshots
3, 4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 0.5% | $86.80 | -93% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 1.1% | $336.54 | -73% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 1.1% | $94.57 | -85% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 1.9% | $141.07 | -76% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $30.00 | 2.7% | $270.92 | -61% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | ATRACTION PARK | 8.0-1 | 6.4-1 | 69.2 | 9% | 27% | ·-1% |
| 8 | AJUST EPIC | 4.5-1 | 4.2-1 | 68.7 | 9% | 27% | ▼-20% |
| 7 | BRUIVA | 4.0-1 | 4.7-1 | 69.3 | 9% | 27% | ▼-24% |
| 9 | BEPICURE | 12-1 | 20-1 | 68.7 | 9% | 27% | ▲+7% |
| 1 | BBAROMETRIC | 15-1 | 20-1 | 69.1 | 9% | 26% | ▲+11% |
| 10 | CHAMPAGNE DREAM | 6.0-1 | 6.7-1 | 67.5 | 8% | 25% | ▼-11% |
| 12 | BUSH | 3.5-1 | 3.8-1 | 67.9 | 8% | 25% | ▼-31% |
| 6 | BY GRACE | 8.0-1 | 8.2-1 | 67.3 | 8% | 25% | ·-3% |
| 5 | SUMMER DREAM | 20-1 | 38-1 | 68.4 | 8% | 24% | ▲+12% |
| 3 | CTUXCA | 30-1 | 59-1 | 67.3 | 7% | 23% | ▲+14% |
| 2 | BIT TIPSY | 20-1 | 45-1 | 66.5 | 7% | 22% | ▲+10% |
| 4 | CBAYOU BABY | 30-1 | 70-1 | 66.3 | 7% | 22% | ▲+14% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Wed, Apr 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.