Wed, Apr 29
Race 2
Clm 25000
Post: 1:15 · 6.5f · Dirt · $64K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #3 ALTOBELLI (E, QSP 8)
- #6 MISTER MMMMM (E, QSP 7)
- #1 BARKSDALE (E, QSP 4)
- #4 REAL MACHO (EP, QSP 0)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 1, 5, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
10.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$15.38
mean $16.64
Expected ROI
-70.8%
net $-4.25
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 5, 4] — hits 10.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $15 (mean $17; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
1, 5
B Contenders
4, 6, 2
C Value-edge longshots
7, 3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 7.9% | $15.70 | -76% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 13.0% | $15.70 | -69% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 15.5% | $14.56 | -79% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 18.1% | $19.56 | -60% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 25.2% | $15.70 | -74% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEBARKSDALE | 3.0-1 | 2.1-1 | 83.2 | 23% | 62% | ·-1% |
| 5 | APHIGHLY FLAMMABLE | 1.8-1 | 1.4-1 | 83.5 | 21% | 59% | ▼-32% |
| 4 | BEPREAL MACHO | 3.5-1 | 3.7-1 | 82.8 | 17% | 50% | ▼-7% |
| 6 | BEMISTER MMMMM | 3.0-1 | 3.0-1 | 74.0 | 11% | 36% | ▼-27% |
| 2 | BPCHIRINGO | 10-1 | 10-1 | 77.2 | 11% | 35% | ▲+12% |
| 7 | CPCHARBONNAY | 20-1 | 26-1 | 75.7 | 9% | 30% | ▲+18% |
| 3 | CEALTOBELLI | 20-1 | 34-1 | 71.0 | 8% | 27% | ▲+15% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Wed, Apr 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.