John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R2

PP 7

CHARBONNAY

G '22 · MINESHAFT × BOOTSY'S HADENOUGH

Trainer: ALVAREZ NERY · Jockey: ORANTES CESAR

Today's prediction

75.7

Speed fig

29.9%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.39
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.37
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.35
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.25
  • Field Size Change From Last +0.16

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -1.51
  • Days Since Last Race -0.50
  • Today Post Position -0.19
  • Last Speed Fig -0.15
  • Num Career Starts -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-01-01 TP 6f Dirt 9 9.3 72 85 Stalk 3p;faded btw3/16
2025-11-22 CD 6f Dirt 4 8.0 77 85 Step slw st;ins;mildly
2025-11-14 CD 6.5f Dirt 4 2.0 82 87 Shift 6w;outfnshed 3rd
2025-07-12 ELP 6f Dirt 4 2.0 85 91 3w;bid btw;tight late
2025-06-11 CD 6f Dirt 5 6.5 77 88 3w;5w btw1/4;lackd bid
2025-05-08 CD 6.5f Dirt 5 7.0 80 89 2w;led;caught1/8;faded
2025-04-23 KEE 6.5f Dirt 1 1.0 85 88 Bmps st;3p;7p upr;rlly
2025-03-15 TP 6.5f Dirt 4 2.3 74 79 Along evenly stretch
2025-02-08 TP 1m Dirt 4 13.8 67 91 Rated off top 3;wilted
2025-01-25 TP 6.5f Dirt 1 0.5 76 82 Stumble st;bmpd/ran on