John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R2

PP 6

REAL MACHO

G '21 · MUCHO MACHO MAN × HEDONISM

Trainer: SHARP JOE · Jockey: ORTIZ IRAD JR

Today's prediction

79.8

Speed fig

41.0%

In-the-money

Last 11 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +1.42
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.84
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.73
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.62
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.53

Pushing prediction down

  • Distance Change From Last -0.39
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.30
  • Num Career Starts -0.18
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree -0.18
  • Class Par Trend -0.16

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-29 CD 6.5f Dirt 4 14.3 74 90 Trailed 5-6p;no factor
2026-03-13 GP 1m Dirt 1 0.1 85 88 5p;6w uppr;duel;gamely
2026-02-08 GP 1m Dirt 2 1.3 86 88 4p; willingly
2025-12-19 GP 1m Dirt 6 10.0 79 95 Bumped start; 2wd
2025-10-18 RP 1.04m Dirt 4 8.5 82 92 Press 2 wide; gave way
2025-09-10 CNL 7f Dirt 4 4.8 85 95 Step slow;fanned 6w1/4
2025-07-26 CNL 1.06m Dirt 5 12.8 81 94 Pressed 2p;wknd 3/8
2025-01-31 GP 1m Turf 7 15.8 75 92 No factor; 2-3wd
2024-12-28 GP 7f Dirt 9 15.0 77 100 Off slw;6-w trn;no bid
2024-09-21 CD 1.19m Dirt 6 16.3 83 93 Hopped start; 4-5p2nd
2024-08-11 CNL 1m Dirt 4 1.5 88 91 Roused 4w; mildly