John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 1

HIGHLY FLAMMABLE

G '19 · MUNNINGS × INFLAMED

Trainer: DONJUAN SERGIO · Jockey: DE LA CRUZ FERNANDO

Today's prediction

87.1

Speed fig

88.0%

In-the-money

Last 11 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.79
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +2.03
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.85
  • Last Speed Fig +0.78
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.71

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.36
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.14
  • Mean Speed Fig Career -0.13
  • Num Career Starts -0.10
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.07

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-29 CD 6.5f Dirt 2 0.3 95 90 Aim 4p;bid;bmpd;dueled
2026-03-19 TP 6.5f Dirt 1 3.8 89 86 3p;vied 2w;drove clear
2026-02-26 TP 6f Dirt 2 2.3 87 86 Stalked ins; ran on
2026-01-14 TP 6f Dirt 1 1.3 82 84 4p;rallied;drove past
2025-12-11 TP 5.5f Dirt 3 1.0 80 84 Outs run; battled show
2025-10-31 WO 6f Dirt 4 4.0 81 84 One paced;minor share
2025-10-12 WO 5.5f Dirt 2 0.5 87 84 Surge late;not in time
2025-06-12 WO 5.5f Dirt 2 1.0 86 86 Chased winner home
2025-03-22 GP 5f Dirt 4 3.3 80 89 5wd; mild rally
2025-01-30 GP 5.5f Dirt 2 1.3 80 85 3p turn;6p lane;ran on
2024-12-27 GP 5f Dirt 3 4.8 81 87 3-4w turn; moved up