Wed, Apr 29
Race 1
Clm 16000
Post: 12:45 · 1m · Dirt · $55K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #1 EMPIRE BUILDER (E, QSP 8)
- #3 CHARBON (EP, QSP 6)
- #2 NIP N TUCK (EP, QSP 4)
- #6 RAISING KANE (EP, QSP 4)
- #8 NATIONAL ECLIPSE (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 4, 1, 8, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$16.42
mean $25.81
Expected ROI
-79.6%
net $-4.77
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [4, 1, 8, 7] — hits 4.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $16 (mean $26; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
4, 1
B Contenders
8, 7, 2
C Value-edge longshots
6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 5.1% | $16.04 | -86% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 8.1% | $28.90 | -71% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 9.0% | $16.42 | -81% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 11.7% | $38.40 | -68% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 12.7% | $42.02 | -66% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | APMY NOBLE KNIGHT | 3.0-1 | 2.3-1 | 84.6 | 19% | 53% | ▼-11% |
| 1 | AEEMPIRE BUILDER | 2.5-1 | 2.2-1 | 84.2 | 17% | 49% | ▼-24% |
| 8 | BEPNATIONAL ECLIPSE | 3.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 81.3 | 14% | 43% | ▼-14% |
| 7 | BSQUOKKA | 6.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 80.3 | 13% | 39% | ·+2% |
| 2 | BEPNIP N TUCK | 15-1 | 20-1 | 78.2 | 11% | 33% | ▲+17% |
| 5 | STRES SOLES | 8.0-1 | 12-1 | 77.6 | 9% | 30% | ·+2% |
| 6 | CEPRAISING KANE | 15-1 | 16-1 | 75.1 | 9% | 29% | ▲+13% |
| 3 | EPCHARBON | 10-1 | 14-1 | 74.9 | 7% | 24% | ·+1% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Wed, Apr 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.