Sat, Jun 6
Race 4
OClm 55000n1x
Post: 12:53 · 6.5f · Dirt · $120K purse · 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersHot pace
7 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #2 NAIVE MELODY (EP, QSP 7)
- #6 CHATTER (E, QSP 7)
- #4 SPEIGHTFUL LILY (E, QSP 6)
- #5 I'M A CUTIE PIE (EP, QSP 6)
- #7 HELEN'S REVENGE (EP, QSP 4)
- #9 MILA CANDY (EP, QSP 4)
- #1 P MUTTER PICKLE (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
6-horse A,B,C box on posts 2, 7, 4, 1, 5, 9
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$120.00
120 combos
Hit prob
40.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$100.85
mean $300.32
Expected ROI
+0.5%
net $0.56
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 6-horse A,B,C box on posts [2, 7, 4, 1, 5, 9] — hits 40.1% of simulated runs
- · At $120 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $101 (mean $300; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
2
B Contenders
7, 4, 1
C Value-edge longshots
5, 9
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 7.1% | $63.29 | -22% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 5.8% | $58.68 | -38% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 8.5% | $63.08 | -27% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 10.4% | $69.61 | -29% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 9.8% | $49.37 | -58% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEPNAIVE MELODY | 3.0-1 | 2.6-1 | 86.0 | 23% | 60% | ·-3% |
| 7 | BEPHELEN'S REVENGE | 8.0-1 | 8.2-1 | 84.4 | 17% | 49% | ▲+21% |
| 4 | BESPEIGHTFUL LILY | 6.0-1 | 6.0-1 | 84.0 | 15% | 45% | ▲+9% |
| 1 | BEPP MUTTER PICKLE | 8.0-1 | 9.1-1 | 82.9 | 10% | 32% | ·+4% |
| 6 | ECHATTER | 4.0-1 | 5.1-1 | 81.5 | 10% | 31% | ▼-20% |
| 8 | PCOACH ALBERT LADY | 8.0-1 | 8.4-1 | 78.5 | 7% | 23% | ▼-5% |
| 5 | CEPI'M A CUTIE PIE | 30-1 | 34-1 | 78.3 | 7% | 22% | ▲+14% |
| 9 | CEPMILA CANDY | 30-1 | 34-1 | 79.3 | 6% | 21% | ▲+13% |
| 10 | PSPECTACULAR GREY | 12-1 | 16-1 | 75.9 | 5% | 16% | ·-3% |
| 3 | SCRESTEER CLEAR | 3.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.