Sat, Jun 6
Race 5
Alw 120000n1x
Post: 1:31 · 1.06m · Turf · $120K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #10 IMPERATRICE (E, QSP 8)
- #2 EPONINE (E, QSP 6)
- #4 SONJA HENIE (EP, QSP 6)
- #7 TIZNOW MAMA (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 STARSHIP ATHENA (EP, QSP 3)
1 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
2×4×4 part wheel on posts 1, 8, 10, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$12.00
12 combos
Hit prob
7.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$186.99
mean $198.46
Expected ROI
+15.2%
net $1.82
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 2×4×4 part wheel on posts [1, 8, 10, 6] — hits 7.0% of simulated runs
- · At $12 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $187 (mean $198; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
8, 10, 6
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 4.0% | $183.01 | +28% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.4% | $179.54 | +11% |
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.9% | $178.49 | +16% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 12.3% | $186.99 | -0% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 12.7% | $183.55 | -3% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASETAWA | 8.0-1 | 5.4-1 | 86.3 | 21% | 56% | ▲+27% |
| 8 | BSSCARLETT'S HALO | 6.0-1 | 6.0-1 | 82.7 | 14% | 42% | ▲+5% |
| 10 | BEIMPERATRICE | 5.0-1 | 4.6-1 | 82.8 | 13% | 38% | ·-4% |
| 6 | BSCURLIN'S ANGEL | 5.0-1 | 5.9-1 | 82.5 | 11% | 35% | ▼-8% |
| 9 | PMARKETPLACEOFIDEAS | 4.5-1 | 4.6-1 | 82.8 | 11% | 34% | ▼-12% |
| 2 | EEPONINE | 3.0-1 | 2.7-1 | 82.1 | 11% | 33% | ▼-30% |
| 4 | EPSONJA HENIE | 10-1 | 12-1 | 80.0 | 7% | 23% | ·-0% |
| 5 | EPSTARSHIP ATHENA | 20-1 | 31-1 | 77.2 | 5% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 3 | CARMENSITA | 15-1 | 18-1 | 71.8 | 3% | 9% | ▼-7% |
| 7 | EPTIZNOW MAMA | 20-1 | 38-1 | 71.8 | 2% | 8% | ·-5% |
| 11 | PY'ALLREADYFORTHIS | 50-1 | 59-1 | 70.6 | 1% | 5% | ·+0% |
| 12 | SCREKADENA | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | SCRPBRUNCH WITH AMY | 4.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | SCRESPARKLING MAMA | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | SCRPSOUNDBITE | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.