Sat, Jun 6
Race 9
Jaipur-G1
Post: 4:13 · 5.5f · Turf · $500K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #8 JOHN THE BEER MAN (EP, QSP 5)
- #1 GOVERNOR SAM (EP, QSP 5)
- #7 CLOCK TOWER (E, QSP 5)
- #6 AG BULLET (EP, QSP 4)
- #10 MY BOY PRINCE (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
2×4×4 part wheel on posts 10, 9, 3, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$12.00
12 combos
Hit prob
5.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$220.91
mean $221.47
Expected ROI
+4.3%
net $0.52
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 2×4×4 part wheel on posts [10, 9, 3, 4] — hits 5.7% of simulated runs
- · At $12 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $221 (mean $221; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
10, 9
B Contenders
3, 4, 6
C Value-edge longshots
2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.2% | $191.83 | +8% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 2.9% | $123.86 | -12% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 11.0% | $188.26 | -11% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.7% | $116.57 | -46% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 6.7% | $123.86 | -30% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | AEPMY BOY PRINCE | 5.0-1 | 5.3-1 | 95.1 | 15% | 44% | ·+1% |
| 9 | APTWENTY SIX BLACK | 12-1 | 11-1 | 94.1 | 15% | 42% | ▲+22% |
| 3 | BPLITIGATION | 3.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 95.1 | 14% | 41% | ▼-16% |
| 4 | BPWORKS FOR ME | 6.0-1 | 6.1-1 | 93.4 | 12% | 37% | ·+0% |
| 6 | BEPAG BULLET | 3.0-1 | 3.5-1 | 91.3 | 9% | 28% | ▼-36% |
| 2 | CSBOLD JOURNEY | 30-1 | 33-1 | 89.7 | 8% | 26% | ▲+18% |
| 8 | EPJOHN THE BEER MAN | 10-1 | 7.9-1 | 88.1 | 8% | 24% | ·+1% |
| 1 | EPGOVERNOR SAM | 15-1 | 16-1 | 90.2 | 7% | 21% | ·+5% |
| 5 | SREEF RUNNER | 4.0-1 | 5.7-1 | 91.1 | 6% | 21% | ▼-30% |
| 7 | ECLOCK TOWER | 20-1 | 25-1 | 88.7 | 6% | 18% | ▲+6% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.