Sat, Jun 6
Race 1
Md Sp Wt
Post: 11:00 · 7f · Dirt · $115K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #4 COLD SPELL (E, QSP 6)
- #3 PIPPA ADDS (E, QSP 6)
- #8 MY SHERRONA (EP, QSP 0)
2 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 4, 3, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
19.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$18.04
mean $29.76
Expected ROI
-5.5%
net $-0.33
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [4, 3, 5] — hits 19.1% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $18 (mean $30; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4
B Contenders
3, 5, 6
C Value-edge longshots
8
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 23.0% | $18.04 | -23% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 31.2% | $18.93 | -25% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 30.6% | $19.63 | -21% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 38.4% | $19.63 | -27% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 41.8% | $27.42 | -21% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AECOLD SPELL | 0.6-1 | 0.5-1 | 89.0 | 54% | 94% | ▼-6% |
| 3 | BEPIPPA ADDS | 6.0-1 | 6.0-1 | 81.1 | 14% | 56% | ▲+19% |
| 5 | BPFUSION | 10-1 | 8.8-1 | 76.8 | 12% | 50% | ▲+27% |
| 6 | BPNAKOMA | 10-1 | 9.5-1 | 77.1 | 8% | 35% | ▲+12% |
| 8 | CEPMY SHERRONA | 10-1 | 10-1 | 76.4 | 7% | 35% | ▲+11% |
| 7 | CROWNING GLORY | 8.0-1 | 10-1 | 73.1 | 3% | 15% | ▼-13% |
| 2 | MY GUN'S LOADED | 15-1 | 18-1 | 68.9 | 3% | 15% | ·-1% |
| 1 | SCRTHREE SHOT SHERYL | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.