Sat, Jun 6
Race 3
OClm 80000b
Post: 12:15 · 1.06m · Turf · $125K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #5 BONUS MOVE (E, QSP 5)
- #3 CIAO CHUCK (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
TightHighest hit-rate tier — best chance to cash a small ticket. Still negative-EV after takeout, but the model has a read.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 8, 9, 7, 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
19.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$8.63
mean $10.37
Expected ROI
-66.0%
net $-3.96
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [8, 9, 7, 1] — hits 19.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $9 (mean $10; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Top 4 cover the ITM math — chalk should hit; payouts likely small.
A Top picks
8
B Contenders
9, 7, 1
C Value-edge longshots
3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 15.3% | $8.63 | -68% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 25.1% | $8.63 | -65% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 29.9% | $11.37 | -63% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 29.4% | $8.63 | -63% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 48.4% | $11.40 | -53% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | ASINTELLECT | 1.2-1 | 0.7-1 | 93.1 | 38% | 83% | ▼-17% |
| 9 | BPCANDYTOWN | 4.0-1 | 3.9-1 | 86.4 | 16% | 54% | ·+3% |
| 7 | BSSON OF A BIRCH | 10-1 | 8.9-1 | 86.9 | 16% | 54% | ▲+30% |
| 1 | BSEJTIMAA | 12-1 | 11-1 | 86.8 | 15% | 53% | ▲+33% |
| 3 | CEPCIAO CHUCK | 20-1 | 18-1 | 83.2 | 9% | 33% | ▲+21% |
| 5 | EBONUS MOVE | 15-1 | 20-1 | 81.5 | 6% | 23% | ▲+7% |
| 2 | SCRSSIGNATOR | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | SCREPTWO'S A CROWD | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | SCREPTENACIOUS LEADER | 5.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | SCREPRANGER BATTALION | 2.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | SCRELE GRIS | 3.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | SCREOTELLO | 5.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | SCREPSARA'S SHAMAN | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | SCREPBIG BLUE LINE | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | SCREPCASTLE CHAOS | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.