Sat, Jun 6
Race 7
JsAGm-G1
Post: 2:47 · 1m · Turf · $500K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #5 AND ONE MORE TIME (EP, QSP 8)
- #1 CLASSIC Q (E, QSP 6)
- #3 SEGESTA (EP, QSP 4)
1 of 8 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×5×5 key (top pick) on posts 5, 3, 2, 8, 1, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$20.00
20 combos
Hit prob
18.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$86.26
mean $173.74
Expected ROI
+58.2%
net $11.63
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×5×5 key (top pick) on posts [5, 3, 2, 8, 1, 6] — hits 18.2% of simulated runs
- · At $20 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $86 (mean $174; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
5
B Contenders
3, 2, 8
C Value-edge longshots
6, 7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 11.8% | $43.34 | +39% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 14.0% | $86.26 | +35% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 8.2% | $43.34 | +16% |
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 8.4% | $25.37 | -60% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 15.3% | $33.82 | -34% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AEPAND ONE MORE TIME | 8.0-1 | 6.7-1 | 93.2 | 23% | 62% | ▲+33% |
| 3 | BEPSEGESTA | 1.4-1 | 1.2-1 | 93.2 | 19% | 55% | ▼-45% |
| 2 | BPSANDTRAP | 3.0-1 | 2.4-1 | 90.3 | 15% | 47% | ▼-17% |
| 8 | BPDEEP SATIN | 12-1 | 12-1 | 92.0 | 15% | 46% | ▲+27% |
| 1 | ECLASSIC Q | 6.0-1 | 7.5-1 | 90.8 | 12% | 38% | ·+2% |
| 6 | CPFAST MARKET | 20-1 | 26-1 | 88.5 | 7% | 25% | ▲+13% |
| 7 | CPBUTTERCREAM BABE | 15-1 | 18-1 | 88.2 | 7% | 24% | ▲+8% |
| 4 | MANDANABA | 4.5-1 | 5.3-1 | 72.1 | 1% | 3% | ▼-44% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.