John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R2

PP 4

FERMI

F '23 · MODERNIST × BUSBY SPRING

Trainer: SWEEZEY J KENT · Jockey: CARRASCO VICTOR R

Today's prediction

75.5

Speed fig

36.1%

In-the-money

Last 8 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.44
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.40
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.22
  • Num Career Starts +0.18
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.16

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -1.66
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.68
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.46
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.22
  • Distance Change From Last -0.15

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-17 CD 7f Dirt 2 3.0 76 78 Stalked 3p; 2nd best
2026-04-23 KEE 6.5f Dirt 6 11.3 65 79 4p; outrun
2026-04-11 GP 5.5f Dirt 6 7.0 64 77 Passed tiring rivals
2026-03-27 GP 5f Turf 4 7.3 74 79 Checked into turn
2026-03-19 GP 6f Dirt 2 1.3 80 80 Rail; tip out; gain2nd
2026-02-26 GP 5f Turf 6 6.5 75 79 Chased3-4w; no rally
2026-01-30 GP 5f Turf 3 1.3 77 79 Brk out;bump st;2-3wd
2026-01-11 GP 5f Dirt 1 1.8 79 78 Pressed 3wd; drv clr