John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R2

PP 7

STATE CHARMER

F '23 · SILVER STATE × CLOUD CHARMER

Trainer: HAMM TIMOTHY · Jockey: SAEZ LUIS

Today's prediction

69.8

Speed fig

31.3%

In-the-money

Last 4 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.35
  • Today Field Size +0.17
  • Field Avg Quirin +0.13
  • Field Size Change From Last +0.12
  • Last Finish Pos +0.12

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.97
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.16
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.63
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.60
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.41

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-26 CD 6.5f Dirt 1 4.5 71 77 Vied 5-4w;drove clear
2026-04-11 TAM 1.06m Turf 5 10.5 63 72 Bmp brk;svd gnd;empty
2026-03-07 TAM 6f Dirt 5 13.5 65 80 Inside;2p;outkicked
2026-02-06 TAM 6f Dirt 2 6.8 66 74 Track;3p;chase on