Sun, May 31
Race 1
Clm 20000b
Post: 12:45 · 6f · Dirt · $50K purse · 6 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 6 of 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #3 HOMIE (E, QSP 8)
- #4 SHADOW COAST (EP, QSP 4)
- #1 MORODER (EP, QSP 3)
- #2 AERATE (EP, QSP 2)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 4, 2, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
10.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$32.55
mean $34.76
Expected ROI
-42.1%
net $-2.53
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [4, 2, 5] — hits 10.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $33 (mean $35; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4
B Contenders
2, 5, 6
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 10.2% | $26.62 | -47% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 18.4% | $30.57 | -37% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 33.5% | $39.15 | -23% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 18.2% | $19.51 | -68% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 24.5% | $23.65 | -70% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AEPSHADOW COAST | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | ↓1.0-1 | 81.4 | 25% | 66% | ▼-34% |
| 2 | BEPAERATE | 1.8-1 | 1.7-1 | ↑4.0-1 | 77.0 | 19% | 55% | ·+4% |
| 5 | BPGALLO DE FUEGO | 4.5-1 | 5.4-1 | ↑7.0-1 | 79.9 | 17% | 52% | ▲+20% |
| 6 | BSLEAGUE OF LEGENDS | 6.0-1 | 6.8-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 76.7 | 16% | 50% | ▲+22% |
| 1 | EPMORODER | 4.0-1 | 4.9-1 | ↓3.0-1 | 73.2 | 14% | 44% | ▼-19% |
| 3 | EHOMIE | 12-1 | 10-1 | ↓8.0-1 | 71.1 | 9% | 32% | ·+3% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Sun, May 31 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.