John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 1

MOUNT HOREB

G '20 · HARD SPUN × SABA

Trainer: WALSH BRENDAN P · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

84.8

Speed fig

45.5%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +4.99
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.21
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.16
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.70
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.28

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.18
  • Weight Change From Last -0.16
  • Today Field Size -0.16
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.13
  • Last Finish Pos -0.11

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-03 KEE 1.13m Turf 8 4.8 80 90 2w;5p1/4;no factor
2026-01-15 TP 1.25m Dirt 8 7.8 82 92 Track 4p;5p3/16;faded
2025-12-20 TP 1m Dirt 4 5.0 81 95 2p;btwn 1/2;evenly
2025-11-23 CD 1.06m Turf 2 0.3 86 90 2w;btw;5p upr;rallied
2025-10-25 KEE 1m Turf 2 0.5 92 90 Ins;3wupr;rally;up plc
2025-03-01 GP 1m Turf 3 1.3 90 91 2p2nd;bid1/4;late gain
2025-01-04 GP 1m Turf 2 1.0 90 92 Rail; 3wd 3/16; rally
2024-11-02 CD 1.06m Turf 4 1.0 85 91 Brushd;ins;denied show
2024-10-19 WO 6.5f Dirt 1 2.8 87 85 Wait turn;drew off 1/8
2024-02-15 GP 7.5f Turf 86 Pulled up; walked off