Mon, May 25
Race 9
Md Sp Wt
Post: 4:55 · 1.06m · Turf · $120K purse · 16 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
16 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #12 PROVIDER (EP, QSP 5)
- #2 TIMAYYYY (E, QSP 5)
- #14 POWER OF WILL (E, QSP 3)
3 of 16 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 6, 8, 10, 12
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
0.6%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$151.05
mean $172.06
Expected ROI
-82.0%
net $-4.92
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [6, 8, 10, 12] — hits 0.6% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $151 (mean $172; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6, 8
B Contenders
10, 12, 13
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 0.7% | $127.32 | -85% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 1.1% | $169.34 | -79% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 1.3% | $147.80 | -84% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 1.8% | $249.92 | -74% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 2.3% | $166.15 | -81% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | APLAHAINALUNA | 4.5-1 | 5.3-1 | 81.9 | 10% | 29% | ▼-18% |
| 8 | APZIHNAL | 3.5-1 | 3.3-1 | 81.0 | 9% | 27% | ▼-30% |
| 10 | BPVIVALDI | 6.0-1 | 6.0-1 | 77.4 | 8% | 25% | ▼-12% |
| 12 | BEPPROVIDER | 6.0-1 | 7.3-1 | 78.3 | 8% | 25% | ▼-12% |
| 13 | BPWAR AND MAJESTY | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 77.9 | 8% | 23% | ▼-6% |
| 11 | SMAXIMUS PRIME | 10-1 | 13-1 | 80.0 | 7% | 22% | ·-1% |
| 5 | SABOUT FACE | 12-1 | 15-1 | 76.5 | 7% | 21% | ·+2% |
| 15 | SDROP SHOT | 15-1 | 22-1 | 75.5 | 7% | 21% | ·+5% |
| 4 | SYOUR WILDEST DREAM | 6.0-1 | 5.4-1 | 75.3 | 7% | 20% | ▼-16% |
| 2 | ETIMAYYYY | 30-1 | 50-1 | 75.9 | 5% | 16% | ▲+8% |
| 16 | SMOON CHANNEL | 12-1 | 16-1 | 72.3 | 5% | 16% | ·-4% |
| 9 | SWRATHCHILD | 10-1 | 17-1 | 71.7 | 4% | 13% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | DEERFIELD | 15-1 | 27-1 | 69.0 | 4% | 13% | ·-3% |
| 7 | WILD CAT CURLIN | 30-1 | 47-1 | 69.3 | 4% | 11% | ·+3% |
| 1 | SIYOUINCANADA | 15-1 | 26-1 | 68.1 | 3% | 10% | ▼-6% |
| 14 | EPOWER OF WILL | 30-1 | 67-1 | 68.1 | 3% | 8% | ·+0% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Mon, May 25 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.