John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 5

DARING HOPE

M '21 · LOOKIN AT LUCKY × EAST TO WEST

Trainer: SHIRER MATT A · Jockey: CEDILLO ABEL

Today's prediction

75.7

Speed fig

23.2%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Last Speed Fig +0.25
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.21
  • Days Since Last Race +0.15
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.14
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.09

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -0.58
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.40
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.29
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.20
  • Today Field Size -0.19

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-22 KEE 6.5f Dirt 2 4.5 82 82 Vied ins pair; kept on
2026-03-26 TP 6f Dirt 9 7.5 76 88 Shuffled st; no threat
2026-03-11 TP 6.5f Dirt 5 7.3 71 81 4p;8p3/16;improved
2025-11-01 CD 6.5f Dirt 4 3.0 78 86 5-7p;outkicked;kept on
2025-10-10 KEE 6.5f Dirt 2 0.5 81 83 Chckd 3/4;ins;rail bid
2025-09-17 BTP 6f Dirt 1 7.3 75 70 Prsrd lead; going away
2025-08-09 ELP 6.5f Dirt 7 9.0 55 78 3p; ins upr; no factor
2025-07-19 ELP 5.5f Dirt 3 5.0 62 67 Bump st;2p;willingly
2025-05-30 CD 5.5f Dirt 5 8.0 69 78 Bmp 5/8;3w;tip out1/8
2025-03-16 FG 1m Dirt 5 21.0 55 72 2p;chs 4p2nd;tire;easd