John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 4

SPUN CANDY

F '22 · HARD SPUN × SUGAR PLUM FAIRY

Trainer: STEWART DALLAS · Jockey: GUTIERREZ MARIO

Today's prediction

81.3

Speed fig

34.4%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.42
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.77
  • Last Speed Fig +0.41
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.40
  • Last Finish Pos +0.29

Pushing prediction down

  • Tj Combo Roi 365d -0.47
  • Class Par Trend -0.37
  • Today Field Size -0.19
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.19
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.16

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-28 CD 6f Dirt 1 3.5 86 83 Prss 4-3pbtw;drv clear
2026-03-14 FG 1m Turf 9 11.3 67 83 Pace to 1/4;tired lane
2026-02-07 OP 1.06m Dirt 9 9.8 75 91 Ins;5p upr;weakened1/8
2026-01-02 OP 6f Dirt 7 11.5 70 91 5-4w turn; no rally
2025-11-26 CD 6f Dirt 3 3.0 83 91 Ins;2w btw3/16;svd shw
2025-06-28 CD 6.5f Dirt 1 1.8 92 86 Stalk ins-2p;drove pst
2025-05-17 CD 6f Dirt 2 5.0 75 86 3-4p;dueld plc;left ld
2025-04-24 KEE 6f Dirt 4 6.5 75 89 Ins;4-6p upr;left lead
2024-08-23 SAR 6f Dirt 5 16.0 72 86 Ins-2path turn;tired
2024-07-21 SAR 6f Dirt 3 2.5 78 86 Out;2p;dueled;wknd