Mon, May 25
Race 2
Md Sp Wt
Post: 1:14 · 5.5f · Dirt · $120K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersUnprojectable
7 of 8 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
7 of 8 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 5, 7, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
9.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$12.97
mean $14.73
Expected ROI
-76.8%
net $-4.61
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [5, 7, 3] — hits 9.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $13 (mean $15; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
5
B Contenders
7, 3, 1
C Value-edge longshots
6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 10.3% | $10.12 | -82% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 14.2% | $10.12 | -76% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 17.6% | $10.12 | -71% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 17.2% | $12.11 | -81% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 24.4% | $12.11 | -67% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | APBOURBON TOWN | 1.6-1 | 1.3-1 | 73.7 | 30% | 72% | ▼-26% |
| 7 | BHEY TUFF GUY | 3.0-1 | 3.2-1 | 68.3 | 18% | 54% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | BGUN FOR GLORY | 4.0-1 | 5.6-1 | 69.1 | 13% | 43% | ▼-8% |
| 1 | BTIME FOR ACTION | 3.5-1 | 4.2-1 | 68.5 | 13% | 43% | ▼-14% |
| 6 | CBISTINEAU BLIZZARD | 20-1 | 48-1 | 67.8 | 11% | 36% | ▲+24% |
| 8 | GAMERBOY | 10-1 | 21-1 | 67.0 | 8% | 29% | ▲+6% |
| 4 | CROSS POWER | 30-1 | 81-1 | 52.2 | 3% | 12% | ·+3% |
| 2 | FORTUNE KING | 30-1 | 66-1 | 46.8 | 3% | 11% | ·+3% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Mon, May 25 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.