John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 6

ORAIA

F '22 · GUN RUNNER × TEXAS SPECIAL

Trainer: COWANS WILLIAM D · Jockey: ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL

Today's prediction

79.5

Speed fig

34.0%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.07
  • Today Track Code +0.27
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.26
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.24
  • Today Field Size +0.23

Pushing prediction down

  • Distance Change From Last -0.51
  • Today Purse Log10 -0.17
  • Weight Change From Last -0.13
  • Jockey Meet Itm Rate -0.11
  • Today Post Position -0.10

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-16 KEE 1.06m Dirt 5 9.0 77 91 2-3p btw;5p3/16;no bid
2026-03-27 TP 1.50m Dirt 6 21.0 75 88 Staked ins;2p3rd;faded
2026-01-10 TP 1.25m Dirt 2 0.8 88 88 Ins-2p;ran on btw late
2025-12-04 TP 1.25m Dirt 1 3.0 81 80 Well rated; held sway
2025-10-09 KEE 1.13m Turf 5 9.3 74 81 Ins;wait;btw upr;mild
2025-09-04 KD 1.31m Turf 4 4.0 79 79 Set pace; weakened;
2025-08-10 ELP 1.06m Turf 7 4.5 77 80 Chck1M;ins;shifted out
2025-06-04 CD 1.13m Dirt 4 8.8 74 84 4p btw1st;2-4p1/4;chsd
2025-05-02 CD 7f Dirt 6 10.8 75 86 10path upper;moved up
2025-03-22 TP 6f Dirt 2 3.8 80 80 Blocked 1/4p ran on