John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 2

ENSORCELL

F '22 · NOT THIS TIME × ON FIRE BABY

Trainer: MOQUETT RONALD E · Jockey: BEJARANO R

Today's prediction

80.9

Speed fig

40.4%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.99
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.81
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.61
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.21
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.18

Pushing prediction down

  • Distance Change From Last -0.45
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.39
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.22
  • Today Purse Log10 -0.14
  • Weight Change From Last -0.13

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-12 KEE 1.13m Turf 6 5.0 81 86 Saved ground;3p btw1/8
2026-03-22 OP 1m Dirt 6 13.5 73 91 Bumped st;inside;wknd
2025-09-14 CD 1.13m Dirt 6 23.5 67 86 2wbtw;4p2nd;no factor
2025-07-01 IND 1m Dirt 5 14.0 62 90 4path;faded
2025-06-05 CD 1.13m Dirt 3 3.0 83 91 Brsh gt/awk;outs winnr
2025-04-26 OP 1.06m Dirt 4 6.5 80 87 Step slow;used3w;tired
2025-03-16 OP 1.06m Dirt 4 4.8 77 87 Rank;std'd repeatedly
2025-02-17 OP 1.06m Dirt 1 0.3 81 83 Carried out 6p;up late
2025-01-05 OP 1m Dirt 7 22.5 58 81 Lost footing brk;rank
2024-12-06 OP 1m Dirt 10 30.5 45 82 Rank 1st turn; back